Il Cigno Nero

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything, and take advantage of uncertainty. What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they are impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

Note: This title is also available on our site in English as The Black Swan.

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

He is a Levantine-American essayist and researcher, who spent two decades as a risk-taker before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (mostly) practical problems with probability. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently a Distinguished Professor at New York University's Tandon School of Engineering and self-funds his own research.